Category: Bay Area Market

Flipping Could Cost More $$$

4/8/2022

Do you binge-watch Flip or Flop and all the HGTV shows and now aspire to flip houses yourself? Then you'll want to know about the California Housing Speculation Act. Also called AB 1771, this legislation proposes a 25% tax on the capital gains earned if a house is sold within 3 years of purchase. Properties sold after 3 years would be taxed at 20%, and after 7 years that percentage would be zero. The money would then be distributed to different counties in an effort to create more affordable housing, fund school districts, and support community infrastructure.

This wouldn’t apply to first-time home buyers, homes used as primary residences or affordable housing units, homeowners active in the military, or to those selling a house after an owner’s death.

This act was basically written in an attempt to prevent real estate investors from driving up prices by buying properties in all cash, quickly renovating, and then selling them at much higher prices.

On the one hand, for the average buyer just wanting to be able to afford a home without selling a kidney on the black market, this might help. Although on the other hand, flippers are doing the dirty job that a typical home buyer would not and they are eventually adding inventory to a market in desperate need of them. If adopted, the tax would go into effect on January 1, 2023.

Also please don't sell any organs on the black market.

Owning a Home Made More Money Than Your Actual Job

3/17/2022

According to Zillow, 2021 U.S. homeowners made more money on average from home appreciation than the median worker earned from their job.

The average U.S. home climbed 19.6% in 2021 to $321,634, a $52,667 increase since 2020, mostly thanks to record low mortgage interest rates and an ongoing housing crisis that kept real estate in high demand.

So is that why everyone is quitting their 9-5 jobs these days??

Strip Malls Are the New Housing

2/4/2022

If you've ever driven along the El Camino Real from San Francisco to San Jose, you’ve probably noticed the seemingly endless stretch of parking lots and strip malls that line the entire route. Well, get this—apparently there’s room for an estimated 250,000 new apartments along this road. Developers are trying to figure out how to make this happen as an attempt to alleviate the housing shortage.

Now let's be real, everyone loves a good strip mall. Where else can you do your grocery shopping, get a haircut, and pick up a burrito for lunch all in the same afternoon? So the goal here wouldn’t be to tear down every strip mall completely. Instead they suggest creating mixed-use buildings that would keep retail space on the ground level while adding apartments on top.

California reportedly needs to build millions of new housing units to meet current demand. Governor Newsom pledged to build 3.5 million homes by 2025, but so far only around 100,000 homes are being built each year. Strip mall development might be a solid solution.

What Goes Down Must Come Up

1/21/2022

...Or something like that.

After two years of being spoiled by record-low interest rates, they're finally starting to creep back up, thanks to the Fed's attempt to tame the beast that is inflation. In just one month, rates jumped half a point from 3.11% to 3.64%. That's the largest one month jump we've seen since December 2013! On a $1M loan, the difference in rates equate to a $300 increase in monthly mortgage. As if the market wasn't challenging enough for buyers to get into these days.

So how will this affect the housing market? Simply put: The higher mortgage rates go, the more bearish the outlook for home price growth.

A more nuanced perspective: "The impact of rising interest rates depends on where they land. If rates approach 4% before the end of the year, there will be a notable downshift in housing demand. If mortgage interest rates gradually rise throughout the year, allowing home sellers to price their homes accordingly, then the shock to the system will be less noticeable."

Building a cottage in your Berkeley yard? Just tell your neighbors.

1/20/2022

Anyone else read the word “cottage” and think of a quaint little home surrounded by wildflowers in the middle of a forest? No? Just me? Ok cool. Well I'm actually referring to an accessory dwelling unit, also known as an ADU.

Homeowners in the Berkeley flatlands can now build two-story ADUs in their front or back yards as long as they inform their neighbors and tenants first. The new rules allow for those who want to build an ADU up to 20 feet tall to get almost automatic city approval.

Meanwhile in the Berkeley Hills, council members still haven't decided how they want to regulate building ADUs, considering there would be higher wildfire risk in those areas.

Under these new regulations, city staff would notify any existing tenants and immediate neighbors about plans for an ADU on their property no more than 10 business days after a homeowner submits a project application. Those who oppose the plans likely won’t have the power to block or change them under Berkeley’s new rules.

2021 Breaking All the Real Estate Records

12/28/2021

Low interest rates, housing shortage, everyone working from home, etc etc etc., all of which came together to create the perfect storm for another record-breaking year in real estate. Here are the new housing records set in 2021.

Rates were low low low low low low (sung in Flo-rida's voice). Prior to the pandemic, the lowest rates to date were set in 2012 at 3.31%. This year, it went down to 2.65%!
Inventory was non-existent. So many buyers, so little homes.
Home price appreciation went through the roof. Annual home price growth reached a new high in October, increasing 18% year-over-year.
Higher prices = larger loans, reaching $1.6 trillion by the end of the year. My mind cannot even compute that many zeroes.
Asking prices were higher than ever before, a stat that's probably skewed in the Bay Area since we apparently like to price homes $1M below the actual sales price.
Median sales price hit a new high, surprising no one.
Sellers gained the most in resale value, averaging $100,178 in profits on a typical home sale in the third quarter of 2021. Times that by a few multiples for the Bay Area.
Homeowners had so. much. equity. Increasing prices led to a record $9.4 trillion in tappable equity during the third quarter (the amount of money a homeowner would be able to access from their home while still retaining 20% equity). Imagine all the new marble countertops and stainless steel appliances you can get with that $$$.
Homes sold fast! Competition hit a peak in March/April when 61.5% of homes under contract had an accepted offer in two weeks. 46% of homes had an accepted offer in one week. Cut that time in half for the Bay Area.
Rents went up, seeing double-digit year-over-year growth for the past 5 months. Renters are paying an average of $291 more per month in rent than they were a year ago. The largest increase is for 2-bedroom units, with the median price of a 2-bedroom increasing to $1,993, or an additional $330 per month, in large metropolitan cities.
Foreign investors sat on the sidelines, thanks to pandemic lockdowns and restricted travel. They bought 107,000 homes and spent $54.4 billion in real estate purchases, the lowest totals since 2011 when investors bought 210,800 properties and spent $66.4 billion. Imagine the market we would've had if they had actually participated in the fun.

Cheers to the new year with a more balanced housing market! Hopefully.

You Get What You Pay For

10/25/2021

Which house would you buy if you had an extra $1.5million lying around?

Bidding War Frenzy

3/22/2021

It's rough out there for home buyers—bidding wars, crazy fast appreciation, and homes going into contract in a week! A strong stock market and low interest rates have increased the purchasing power of buyers. With such fierce competition, buyers need to get pre-approved and be ready to go see homes the second they hit the market to stand a fighting chance. You know what they say: “If you stay ready, you don’t gotta get ready”...or something like that.

Also, plot twist: millennials are unexpectedly the ones driving this market, buying multi-million dollar "starter homes". Amazing what you can afford once you stop going out to brunch for avocado toast.

It's our pandemiversary

3/15/2021

Remember last March when the world shut down and we all rushed to the grocery stores to buy toilet paper in an irrational panic? Well, here we are one year later and that same energy seems to have translated to any decent house that pops up on the market. Along with many other agents, I've been spending the last many months taking a brutal beating with my buyers in this insane housing market. Buyers are waiving all contingencies and far exceeding the comp prices just for the chance to get a house. 20, 30, even 40+ offers are not uncommon anymore. And there's no signs of this letting up for the rest of the year. But unrelated good news: at least we get to procrastinate one more month until May 17th to do our taxes!

The Weirdest Market We Ever Did See

2/28/2021

In a strange turn of events, rent levels and home prices have diverged across the country. Home values increased in all of the 100 largest metros in the U.S. But in some of the richest cities—rent prices fell, many by double-digit percentages.

Why is this very unusual trend happening? Like so many other financial and social matters, it might be the economic divide. The pandemic has unfortunately widened the gap between those who are thriving financially and those who are barely scraping by. While the stock market continues to go up, making wealthy people even wealthier, millions of Americans remain unemployed and struggling.

And the same is happening in our housing market. As demand for homes soars and prices are increasing at a much faster pace than incomes, high-end homeowners are seeing their property values skyrocket. Meanwhile, those looking to purchase low to middle-tier houses are finding it difficult to even afford a place.

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